Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Oman
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Kazakhstan
  • Korea, South
  • Uzbekistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $500,075$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{544,531.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(544,531.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,544$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,933.8}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 171.1)}}\) (asimptote \(36,933.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,142$ on 2020-10-11

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $402,330$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{498,432.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 180.3)}}\) (asimptote \(498,432.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,852$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,882.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,882.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,321$ on 2020-10-11

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $290,493$ on 2020-10-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,980$ on 2020-10-11

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,855$ on 2020-10-11

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,890$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,896.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 128.1)}}\) (asimptote \(94,896.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,038$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,110.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 138.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,110.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,012$ on 2020-10-11

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,230$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,478.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(45,478.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,085$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,184.4}{1 + 10^{-0.768 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,184.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,918$ on 2020-10-11

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $75,614$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,700.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(80,700.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $275$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 133.8)}}\) (asimptote \(263.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,090$ on 2020-10-11

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $111,116$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,177.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 143.1)}}\) (asimptote \(112,177.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $658$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{593.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 80.7)}}\) (asimptote \(593.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,190$ on 2020-10-11

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $339,267$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333,998.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.4)}}\) (asimptote \(333,998.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,043$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,070.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 118.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,070.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,894$ on 2020-10-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Saudi Arabia recovered 86%
Korea, South recovered 80%
Uzbekistan recovered 74%
United Arab Emirates recovered 51%
Tajikistan recovered 43%
Bahrain recovered 41%
Bangladesh recovered 31%
Israel recovered 17%
India recovered 15%
Iraq recovered 11%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,876$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,170.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,170.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144$ on 2020-10-11

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,831$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,656.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,656.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,744.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,744.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,044$ on 2020-10-11

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,703$ on 2020-10-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $433$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{338.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(338.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,541$ on 2020-10-11

Uzbekistan⮸

Population $33,469,203$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,098$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,404.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 149.0)}}\) (asimptote \(66,404.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $505$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{548.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(548.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,524$ on 2020-10-11